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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|